Saturday, September 30, 2023

Sri Lanka is a victim of consequences that changed in ODI cricket

When it comes to the downfall of SL ODI cricket there are a few things people forget...

- Some fast bowlers may do unbelievable things when the swing is on offer. But just bowl boundary balls when not. So the conditions really matter for most fast bowlers.

- SL's glory days had a hidden strength that was more important than all. They had a bunch of slow bowlers - spinners predominantly - in the middle overs. Most of them are batters who can spin. These folks controlled the game in the middle overs so that the opposition rarely had a walk in the park.

- With the coming of two cricket balls in two ends, and the field restrictions leading to the intro of second power play, cricket killed all those middle-overs spinner all-rounders. And THAT has been a silent killer for SL than anything else. Not that SL did so good in the past 10 years, but on top of SL's mistakes, they lost one of their main strengths.

- Today, the pitches are made for 300+, and hence ODI is really a batter's game, and relatively boring. However, SL does not agree with this trend. This is the very reason why games in SL are 250 games and still, you need a lot of good health to survive as a spectator. This is the best of ODI and how it should be. But the world has different opinions. This disparity would add more to SL's agony as they are playing in different wickets at home and their slow bowlers are not accustomed to 300+ wickets.

- Regardless of what the world did after the Sanath-Kalu style, SL always batted their best batters in no 3, 4, and 5. They made sure that the team made stable progress in the middle overs. What SL lost in the recent past is the lack of similar quality in the middle order. After the days of Mahela, Sanga, and in form Angie (not the Angie after 2015) we do not have that level of quality there, the slots were mostly given to beginners who never got established so far.

- The ODI game had a high impact from T20 the power hitting in the first and last powerplay makes more impact than the consolidation. Although we invented this style and had a few names at the world's best level, SL always lacked power hitters. In modern games, it is a major lack compared to when stylish Sanga and Mahela could still win the game 10 years ago.

- In the pitches that favor batting there is so little early swing, so what made Vass and Kulasekara nightmares to others is no longer there. And the ball can at most become 25 overs old as there are two of them. So Malinga's latter over reverse swing is also hardly possible. These are the main fast bowling skills SL possessed in the past.

- These facts changed the game so much that many of SL's strengths became obsolete. Although the messes in SL cricket cannot be justified, it is equally possible that those messes came up since SL did not have the qualities that the game evolved in the last 10 years, hence desperately trying to find make-shift solutions.

Friday, July 28, 2023

The Galle Delusion


Many people are stunned by SL's loss at the hands of Pakistan. We all understand how they missed a possible win in Galle to bad fielding and most of us are ok to dissolve that as life. But in SSC they looked like helpless.

The surprise may have been because - as per many - we were doing so well in test cricket. Why not? We almost challenged India and Australia to take their places in the championship final. So we were going well, anyone would say.

Were we? I wish to raise this question based on one fact - the venue. No this is not a "home and away" analysis like we all know everyone has a home advantage. This is a "Galle and away" analysis.

Were SL's good test returns of the last championship cycle brought by playing in Galle?

In this analysis I wish to mark two teams as relatively weak in test cricket, those are WI and Bangladesh (Ireland played outside of the championship cycle and I would pretty much ignore it entirely). So my analysis splits again into better teams and weaker teams where the weaker label is strictly for WI and Bangladesh

2021-23 cycle, Better opponents: Galle-WWLL, Away-LLLL

2019-21 cycle, Better opponents: Galle-WLL, Other_home-L, Away-DLLL

So they just won three tests against better opponents in 16 attempts and they all have been at Galle. They could just even draw one hence losing a hefty seven games outside Galle.

Also, I must say that the two they lost in Galle, in 2021-23 cycle, could have been won easily had it not been for multiple fielding mistakes. So they were games that could have been won. At Galle, SL has comprehensively got beaten only once by England among better opponents.

2021-23 cycle, Weaker opponents: Galle-WW, Away-WD

2019-21 cycle, Weaker opponents: Other_home-WD, Away-DD

They won three, two being in Galle and never lost anywhere.

So it is fair to say that SL's relatively high position in test cricket has been primarily thanks to Galle and playing weaker teams. Outside of Galle, they won only one game and that was against the weaker.

This was allowed by them being able to play both tests of each tour in Galle due to the circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. They overdid this beyond the pandemic until a few months ago and finally gave up that plan after 2021-23 cycle.

Hence here we are, dawning on the reality outside Galle, at SSC, helpless like I stated at the beginning. Outside of Galle, this team is as weak as its ODI and T20I counterparts and perhaps they maybe even worse than the other two formats.

If you wonder why Sri Lanka does so well in Galle, the following guys are the main components of success in Galle for the periods of the last two test cycles.

Prabhath Jayasuriya:
Galle - 6 matches, 53 wickets, averaging 21.92
Other_Home - 1 match, 2 wickets, averaging 91.5
Away - 2 matches, 4 wickets, averaging 56.0

Ramesh Mendis:
Galle - 10 matches, 56 wickets, averaging 25.19
Other_Home - 2 matches, 6 wickets, averaging 54.67
Away - 2 matches, 1 wicket, averaging 192.0

Lasith Embuldeniya:
Galle - 6 matches, 32 wickets, averaging 28.42
Other_Home -1 match, 2 wickets, averaging 78.0
Away - 8 matches, 31 wickets, averaging 45.22

Galle has been SL's fortress, literally and metaphorically. Within it they would beat anyone, hence look so strong. Outside it, even on other home venues, SL look like mere peasants as vulnerable as the other weaker test-playing nations, and even worse than their ODI and T20I outfits.

By playing all home tests in Galle SLC has created a grand delusion. In fact, we can call it the Galle Delusion !!!